US Whiskey Consumption v Production: How might it evolve?

Commercial Spirits Intelligence No 153.

In this article we wanted to examine the supply and demand dynamics for US whiskey in the face of the sizeable current stock position that currently exists. Much is made of people drinking less in the current market, but our view is that consumption of US whiskey has remained steady over the last decade. On this basis much of the current reset is required by the significant stock position the exists versus this steady consumption pattern. We have reviewed the historical data to show this more clearly and designed two forward looking scenarios for production and consumption to see how various scenarios may impact the stock levels. In this way we provide insight on what may be expected and when the trade will return to recovery.