Diageo FY 24 Results – the bottom of the cycle?
Commercial Spirits Intelligence No.57
As people who have worked in and around the spirits industry for many years, we found that there was a lack of good, public, research on the trends in the spirits industry. Whether it’s trends in wood, or distillery capacity, or M&A activity - many of the existing research providers speak to a specific niche when we wanted a whole-market analysis. In this newsletter we leverage our experience, contacts and market intel to provide meaningful analysis that speaks to relevant issues for you. This newsletter is a collaboration between Duncan McFadzean of Noble & Co, and Martin Purvis. If you find this newsletter valuable, please consider a paid subscription.
Diageo FY 24 Results – the bottom of the cycle?
Executive Summary
In this article we have taken a look at Diageo’s 2024 results. We have also completed some analysis of first half results versus second half of the year and looked back as far as 2019 to understand the company a little more. Whilst the picture is clearly challenging at present, we detect some green shoots of improvement in the Diageo results. The next year will tell us if this is correct, and we expect the wider spirits industry to improve as and when interest rates fall. In addition, we believe that the pre-election uncertainty in the USA is also hindering a return to confidence in this important market.
We have previously looked at Diageo’s interim 2024 results and earlier this week saw the release of their Full Year (FY) results for fiscal year 2024. This allows us to examine the full-year position and compare the first half of the year with the second.
Because Diageo are such a large player in the market, what they say and do is important to follow. In brown spirits and scotch, they are critical as the category leader through Johnnie Walker. This flows through to demand for used and new barrels.
I also think it’s increasingly important to horizon scan. Especially when you sit in Scotland which is a mature whisky marketplace. The patterns of consumption here are not the same as those in other geographies. It is critical to see the marketplace through the eyes of other consumers who may be at the start of their whisky journey.