Analyst Estimates As A Predictor of the Listed Spirits Company Trading
Commercial Spirits Intelligence No.78
This newsletter is a collaboration between Duncan McFadzean of Noble & Co, and Martin Purvis. In this newsletter we leverage our experience, contacts and market intel to provide meaningful analysis that speaks to relevant issues for you.
Analyst Estimates As A Predictor of the Listed Spirits Company Trading
Welcome to 2025! Will this be the year that the whisky cycle turns back upwards? The optimists will tell you about growing GDP, stabilised inflation, falling interest rates, wage increases greater than cost of living increases, signs of upturns in drinking habits in high-end nightclubs, currency movements, a Trump economic boost and a sensible approach to product pricing. The pessimists will tell you about war, ongoing cost of living pressures, health concerns, Gen Z habits, Tequila, tariffs, whisky lochs, new distilleries, product saturation, over-priced products, consumer confusion and declining product quality. Who is right?
This week to start off the year we look at the listed companies and what we can read into what is happening there. We look at share prices and more importantly, forecast earnings revisions. The stockmarket is likely to discount an actual upturn 6-12 months in advance of it happening. The obvious caveat being the famous comment in 1982 by MIT Professor Paul Samuelson who said “the stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions”.